March 5 2013: Probable Facts

IEBC: by the end of this day this commission should have delivered results, mostly the would be highly anticipated presidential results. It would be bordering crime if it wouldn’t and reading from the 2007 script Kenyans would be even more anxious and anxiety is the last thing this reforming body would want to build. 

Muhuruto presidency: Musalia Mudavadi saves this group from possible political ignominy. He’s the last bet for the other two guys and his presidency smells of soberness and humility. One thing the other two guys need is an affirmation from the electorate of the confidence they have so far exuded despite a baggage few would be ready to overlook by running for the country’s leadership. Their win would just give them that, confidence. That entourage that welcomed them back from The Hague should be even longer on this date, maybe even stretching to Rift Valley from Central. The anger, meanwhile from the likes of President Obama, UK PM Cameron, should be hitting the roof, snaking to the hoof. Probably Pres Yoweri Museveni should be desperately trying to find another corridor for his country's supplies in Mombasa. Panic mode. Although that’s largely because of the unknown.

Railonzo presidency: this is not a coalition formed out of utmost love for each other. More out of fear, and desperate attempts to sugar-coat bitterness from rejection experienced elsewhere. The biggest challenge with it is it would struggle to shake off that bitterness even after assuming the presidential niceties. Scrap that but still suspicion, competition and bids to outdo each other might characterise it. Pull the challenges and this appears an effective leadership for the Kenya we will be on this day. But then again these guys would have been in powerful positions over the last five years. What freshness could they inject in the next five? President Raila smacks of freshness, soberness and adherence to the letter of the rule of law. A deputy president Kalonzo offers not much, not such. Indecisiveness, unassertiveness and bagging fears he could turn against his boss any minute. But then again he has been subservient to his boss since the last election.   

  

Others: Kentuju, Karualone, Kiyiapiforgotten, Kamenjuoker etc, etc: they might be harbouring that dream freshness, newness some voters are hungering for but the masses have never gone for such, they pick their tribal idols. On this day they may be affixed to their corners in the periphery coldly hugging their high-flying manifestoes. Others would be hugging their votes. 

Kenya: should be peaceful at all costs. The pain of any loss shouldn’t be the reason to unleash hell. Peace is never equal to anything, least no peace.